home  /  exposure & pathway analysis  /  exposure assessment
exposure & pathway · toxic tort science

Exposure assessment and dose reconstruction.

A concentration is not a dose. Converting one into the other is where most of the contestable judgement in a toxic tort matter actually lives.

get started

What was the exposure?

Start a conversation with our AI Research Concierge, already scoped to exposure assessment. Pick a starting point, or describe your situation directly.

AI Research Conciergeexposure assessment · triage, not a substitute for an expert
Tell me what you know so far — the substance, roughly when and where, and what records or sampling exist. I'll help scope what a reconstruction would require and which discipline fits.

Dose reconstruction is the discipline of estimating how much of a substance entered a particular person's body, over what period, from evidence that is almost always incomplete. It combines measured or modeled environmental concentrations with the specifics of the receptor — where they lived and worked, how long they were there, what they drank, how much air they breathed, what they did each day — and it produces a number that both sides will fight over. The work is genuinely quantitative and genuinely uncertain at the same time, which is an uncomfortable combination to present. Reconstructions that survive challenge tend to share one feature: they state their assumptions plainly and carry a range, rather than presenting a single figure with unearned confidence.

mechanisms

What a reconstruction has to establish.

Each element is separately contestable, and a weakness in any one of them undermines the estimate as a whole.

Concentration at the receptor

What the substance measured — or can be modeled to have measured — at the place the person actually was, not at the fence line or the source.

Route of exposure

Inhalation, ingestion, or dermal contact. Each has its own uptake behaviour and its own set of receptor factors.

Duration & frequency

How long and how often, across a period that may span decades and several residences or jobs.

Receptor characteristics

Age, body weight, breathing rate, water consumption, and activity patterns — children are not small adults for these purposes.

Historical conditions

What the site and the surroundings were like during the exposure period rather than today, after remediation or closure.

Uncertainty

The range the estimate honestly supports, and which assumptions drive it. Omitting this is the most common avoidable weakness.

methodology

What the evidence shows — and what we examine.

How a defensible reconstruction is built.

Records reconstructionProcess, purchase, permit, and disposal records establishing what was present and in what quantities during the period at issue.
Modeling to the receptorDispersion or transport modeling that produces a concentration where the person was, calibrated to site data where any exists.
Receptor historyResidence, employment, and activity history assembled from testimony, records, and where possible independent corroboration.
Sensitivity analysisTesting which assumptions actually move the answer, so that the argument concentrates on the ones that matter.
what's at stake

What the exposure estimate decides.

Nearly every downstream question — causation, damages, class definition — takes the exposure estimate as its input.

whether specific causation is reachable who falls inside a class Daubert exposure for the whole opinion the scale of damages which properties are implicated limitations and discovery arguments

The estimate is the weak point.

Opponents rarely start with the medical literature. They start by asking how the exposure number was produced, which assumptions drive it, and what happens to the conclusion when a defensible alternative assumption is substituted.

common questions

Dose reconstruction — practical questions.

How far back can an exposure be reconstructed?

Decades, where the documentary record supports it — occupational and community exposure reconstructions routinely address periods from the 1950s onward. What governs is not elapsed time but the survival of records: process descriptions, material purchases, emissions inventories, employment files, and any contemporaneous monitoring. Where those exist the reconstruction can be reasonably constrained; where they do not, the honest estimate carries a wide range, and a wide range is sometimes still decisive because even the low end exceeds a threshold that matters.

Is a modeled concentration acceptable, or is measured data required?

Modeled concentrations are routinely accepted where measurement is impossible, which in historical exposure matters is most of the time. What draws challenge is not modeling itself but modeling that runs on default inputs when site-specific inputs were available, that is not calibrated against whatever measurements do exist, or that is presented without any assessment of uncertainty. A model validated against even sparse contemporaneous data is materially stronger than one that was never tested against reality.

How do multiple residences or jobs affect the analysis?

They make it additive and more contestable. A cumulative dose across several locations requires a defensible estimate at each, and each is separately attackable — which is why opposing experts often concentrate on the periods with the weakest documentation rather than on the analysis as a whole. It also raises apportionment: where more than one source contributed, the question of how much came from the defendant's operation becomes its own dispute, usually resolved with a combination of modeling and source attribution work.

What makes a reconstruction vulnerable to exclusion?

The recurring pattern is extrapolation beyond what the method supports — using a screening-level tool to produce a litigation-grade number, adopting conservative regulatory defaults designed to be protective and presenting them as best estimates, or reaching a conclusion the underlying data cannot constrain. Courts assess whether the expert applied the same rigor they would apply in their own practice. An exposure estimate produced by a method the field uses, applied the way the field applies it, with uncertainty stated, is on far firmer ground than one built for the occasion.

related

Related specialization areas & resources.

Need a dose reconstructed?

Describe what you know about the exposure. We will scope it and connect you with the right expert.

contamination assistanttriage · not a causation opinion
Tell me what you know so far — the substance, roughly when and where, and what records or sampling exist. I'll help scope what a reconstruction would require and which discipline fits.